Gulf crisis and the uncertain outlook for global markets
The economic landscape has become so fluid and complex since the onset of the Gulf crisis at the end of February that assessing its potential outcomes is genuinely difficult.
Once the situation stabilises, its effects will become clearer in the coming months. In the meantime, however, reliable estimates exist regarding the impact the crisis would have had in the worst‑case scenario-namely, if it had lasted throughout 2026, with Brent crude consistently between 110 and 140 dollars per barrel and natural gas between 60 and 100 dollars per MWh.
It has been calculated that the resulting increase in energy costs for the food industry would have ranged between +4.0% and +5.3%. It is worth recalling that in 2022, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the estimated impact was lower: +3.2% for the food sector and +4.0% for manufacturing as a whole. These assessments also exclude the additional cascading effects triggered by the surge in fertiliser prices.
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